Winter flight schedule: High rate level due to e-commerce boom
Airlines shift cargo space significantly to Asia for direct distribution of Temu and Shein.
"The winter flight schedule will be characterized by the continuing e-commerce boom," says Stefan Goestl. The Airfreight Manager Germany at a. hartrodt at Munich Airport assumes that there will be continuing bottlenecks in transport space and expects freight rates to rise on certain routes from November 1, 2024. According to Nadine Wild, Manager Pricing & Procurement Airfreight, this will affect routes from Europe to Latin America and the USA, among others. "Capacities have shifted to meet global demand elsewhere," says Stefan Goestl, adding that this is mainly due to the rapid growth of the Asian online platforms Temu and Shein.
Temu and Shein need a lot of cargo space
The e-commerce giants sell goods directly to end customers – with the result that up to 5,000 tons are flown every day. According to calculations by the German daily newspaper “Sueddeutsche Zeitung", this corresponds to over 100 Boeing 777 freighters per day. "Major airlines have relocated their freighters to Asia," reports Stefan Goestl. The situation is made more difficult by the fact that air cargo is in greater demand due to the Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea.
Fixed "hard block" contracts secure capacities
Despite the current difficult situation, a. hartrodt can reliably offer air freight capacities. For the winter flight schedule, the freight forwarder has secured cargo space with airlines with fixed "hard block" contracts at an early stage. However, a. hartrodt has to book additional capacity on an ad hoc basis, so air freight customers with westbound destinations "should be prepared for higher prices", says Nadine Wild. However, Stefan Goestl expects a "stable rate level" for the Christmas business with air freight imports from Hong Kong or China. The experienced manager considers it a positive sign that rates have "not exploded" before the recently ended Golden Week.
"In the short term, the existing capacity bottlenecks could become even more critical," warns Stefan Goestl. A strike at container ports, such as the one that ended on the US East and Gulf Coasts at the beginning of October after just a few days, would drive up demand for air freight, for example.